Development cycle analysis and maturity analysis of scroll compressor industry

2022-10-25 14:37

The air compressor is the main part of the air source device, which converts the mechanical energy of the prime mover (usually the motor) into the gas pressure energy. Air compressor is classified as an important category of "general machinery" because of its wide use. From the perspective of application fields, air compressors are mainly used in machinery manufacturing, chemical and petrochemical, mining metallurgy, textile and clothing, food and pharmaceutical, transportation and other industries, which are closely related to macroeconomic trends.
Industry development cycle analysis
Initial stage: During this period, the market growth rate was high, the demand growth was fast, and the technology changes were large. Enterprises in the industry were mainly committed to opening up new users and occupying the market. However, at this time, there was great uncertainty in technology, and there was great room in product, market, service and other strategies. They did not have much information on industrial characteristics, industrial competition, user characteristics, and other aspects, and their barriers to entry were low.
Growth period: during this period, the market growth rate is very high, the demand is growing at a high speed, the technology is gradually becoming finalized, the industrial characteristics, industrial competition and user characteristics have been relatively clear, the enterprise's barriers to entry have been improved, and the number of product varieties and competitors has increased.
Maturity period: In this period, the market growth rate is not high, the demand growth rate is not high, the technology is mature, the industrial characteristics, industrial competition and user characteristics are very clear and stable, the buyer's market is formed, the industrial profitability is reduced, the development of new products and new uses of products is more difficult, and the industrial entry barriers are high.
Recession period: during this period, the market growth rate decreases, the demand decreases, and the number of product varieties and competitors decreases.
China's air compressor has gone through two stages: starting and growing, and now it has entered a stable development stage. With the rapid development of the air compressor industry, the concentration of the air compressor market has gradually increased, and a number of leading enterprises have gradually formed. These enterprises continue to improve their competitiveness through industry integration.
Specifically, it can be divided into three periods: the piston engine period before 1999, the conventional screw engine period from 2000 to 2010, and the unconventional engine period after 2011. Before 1999, the piston engine occupied an absolutely dominant position in the compressor market in China, and the market lacked a serious understanding of the screw engine. The only few compressor enterprises are basically foreign-funded brands, and most of the procurement customers are foreign-funded, joint venture and Taiwan funded enterprises. After 2000, with China's accession to the World Trade Organization, the economy grew at a high speed, and the compressor market demand expanded rapidly. The screw machine with more advanced technology, simpler process, more convenient maintenance, and more stable operation was gradually accepted by the market. The screw machine brand and sales volume in the market entered the blowout state. At the same time, the huge profits made the market capacity increase rapidly. Until around 2011, the market growth slowed down, the incremental market shrank, and the competitive pressure increased. As the products and technologies of domestic compressor enterprises continue to mature and their concepts are updated, the technological pattern of permanent magnet frequency conversion, two-stage compression, medium high low pressure, oil-free lubrication and other value wars advocating energy conservation and consumption reduction, green and environmental protection has gradually formed, making the industry enter the third stage, but it is still on the road of development.
If it is subdivided, it can be divided into the following seven stages:
1. Complete import stage of screw air compressor
Although some screw air compressor enterprises are developing important parts, the equipment is too old, the machine performance is relatively poor, and they do not have the capacity for large-scale production. Multinational companies in the world gradually enter and monopolize the screw air compressor market. However, the relevant technical standards, basic theories and talent training in China have just started. Demand drives development, and the teaching materials of screw air compressor and SCAD design software are also improved at this stage.
2. Import stage of important parts of screw air compressor
GHH, ROTORCOMP and TAMROTOR, represented by the production of mainframe products, entered the Chinese market. In particular, GHH Company, whose CF series high-performance host entered the Chinese market, has aroused extensive attention of Chinese people on screw air compressors. After a short period of 2-3 years, screw air compressor has been positively recognized by the industry, the monopoly of international companies has disappeared, and domestic screw air compressor manufacturers have also entered the ranks of competition.
3. At the same time, important accessories of HOERBIGER, VMC, AIRCON, DANFOSS, PARKER and LEKLLI entered China.
4. Localization stage of general components of screw air compressor
At this stage, except for the obvious start of the development of the main engine, other components can be produced in China.
5. Localization stage of important parts of screw air compressor
This stage is represented by the main engine, including inlet valve, controller, sensor, etc. Typical representatives are Han Zhong, FUSHENG, etc.
6. All screw air compressors are localized
The complete machine factory represented by the main engines provided by Kaishan, Bosi, Hanzhong, etc., can comprehensively produce all the main parts and accessories of the screw compressor and its auxiliary equipment. From then on, the industry began to compete with foreign brands.
7. Partial surpassing stage
At this stage, represented by permanent magnet frequency conversion and two-stage compression, taking the opportunity of energy conservation and consumption reduction, and against the background of the decline of the incremental market, domestic brands have surpassed foreign brands in some models and fields, and are at the forefront of the industry. However, the follow-up development is still a heavy task.
Comparison of industry maturity between China and foreign countries
In terms of product quality alone, the gap between domestic air compressors and imported air compressors is small, but the ability of independent innovation is lacking, and imitation is still widespread. In terms of price, the domestic equipment is still much lower than the imported ones. Not to mention the products from Italy and Germany, that is, Korean products, their prices are at least twice higher than the domestic ones.
At present, the air compressor machinery in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Fujian and other places is developing rapidly. The production varieties basically cover all aspects of the gas compression process, and are fully equipped with the output capacity of the whole machine. The technical content and grade of the products are close to or even exceed the level of the international air compressor market, and are integrated into the international compressor design and process product production philosophy. The products of the three major air compressor production bases in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang have been exported to international markets such as Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Russia.
Maturity analysis of the industry and its main sub industries
With the development of China's air compressor industry in recent years, the overall production capacity and technical level of the industry have been improved. However, compared with the demand of high-end market, the domestic air compressor supply capacity is still relatively limited, while in the low-end market, there is a serious overcapacity. However, with the change of the industry pattern, the domestic compressor industry still has a high growth potential.
Industry situation and investment prospects
Since 2013, the domestic economic situation has been complex. The industrial demand in the downstream application field of air compressors, which is closely related to the macro-economy and fixed asset investment, has continued to decline. The market demand has not yet come out of the weak situation. The sales performance of most enterprises in the industry has continued to decline.
According to the data reported by 76 member enterprises of the compressor industry association, as of the end of 2014, the total assets had reached 24.4 billion yuan, a steady year-on-year growth, but the main business income continued to decline by about 3% year on year, and the total profit decreased by more than 10%.
2015 is a year for China's economy to face challenges. In the face of adverse factors such as macroeconomic downward pressure, increased foreign trade risks and uncertainties, and rising costs of human resources, environment, resources and other factors, the country has introduced a series of measures to stabilize growth, but it is still difficult for our compressor industry, with some key indicators showing a downward trend of growth, weak demand, and serious homogeneous competition in the industry, Problems such as structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading need to be solved urgently.
The global economy still faces many major challenges in 2016, and the economic recovery is still uncertain. However, the demand pattern of the whole machinery industry is changing from increment oriented to stock oriented, the proportion of new construction and renovation projects is changing, the structural contradiction between insufficient traditional demand and emerging demand is becoming increasingly prominent, and the adaptability of R&D and market development to market changes is also facing challenges. As an investment product, air compressor products may continue to be depressed in the industry as a whole.
Considering the international economic situation, market demand and the development pattern of the compressor industry, the future investment opportunities for air compressors can be seen from the following two aspects:
1. Key investment fields in the industry
As a general machinery supplier, the fate of air compressor enterprises is closely related to the development of real estate, construction, industry, engineering projects and other industries. In recent years, influenced by the favorable investment environment of the country and the deepening of infrastructure policies, China's air compressor industry has ushered in a development opportunity of sustained high growth. However, with the increasing environmental pressure today, energy conservation and environmental protection have become the consensus of the whole society, as has the air compressor industry. In terms of air compressor market, with the guidance of national policies and the improvement of the whole society's awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection in recent years, efficient energy conservation has gradually become the consensus of domestic enterprises, representing the future development trend. Some insiders predicted that under the premise of no large-scale emergencies in the macro-economy, it is recommended to focus on the field of efficient and energy-saving air compressors.
2. Industry key investment products
In recent years, China's economy has entered a new normal mode. Economic development is shifting from high-speed growth to medium to high-speed growth. The mode of economic development is shifting from extensive growth based on scale and speed to intensive growth based on quality and efficiency. The economic structure is shifting from the focus on incremental capacity expansion to the deep adjustment of the coexistence of adjusting stocks and optimizing growth. The driving force of economic development is shifting from traditional factor input to innovation driven. The profound changes in economic operation require the industry to recognize and evaluate the indicators of economic conditions, and expand and deepen accordingly.
Due to the global energy shortage, the prices of energy, raw materials, etc. continue to rise, coupled with the rise of local labor costs, making manufacturing enterprises' operating costs rise and profit margins shrink. In order to reduce the decline in profits, manufacturing enterprises will accelerate the improvement of production automation level, reduce labor input and extend the service life of equipment in the future. Under this trend, it is suggested that the investment focus on the permanent magnet variable frequency compressor, oil-free screw air compressor, two-stage compression products, etc., which have the advantages of high automation, energy conservation, environmental protection and high cost performance.
China's air compressor market was mainly composed of piston type, screw type, centrifugal type, sliding vane type and other air compressors, of which piston type accounted for the largest proportion, followed by screw type, centrifugal type, sliding vane type, scroll type and so on. In recent years, with the development of screw air compressor and centrifugal air compressor, the proportion of piston air compressor in the industry has declined, but it still accounts for a certain proportion.
(1) Screw air compressor
Compared with piston air compressor, screw air compressor has the advantage of low operating cost. From the perspective of the whole life cycle of the machine, the investment recovery rate of the screw machine is 20% higher than that of the piston machine, which has obvious energy-saving effects. As a result, screw air compressor has gradually replaced piston air compressor in many fields.
At the same time, with the increase of national pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction, as well as the improvement of social requirements for energy conservation and environmental protection, energy-saving compressors will gradually become a hot spot in the market, that is, conventional screw machines in service will enter the replacement period of energy-efficient screw machines. It is expected that the industry will step up efforts to promote compressor products that meet the national energy efficiency standards of Level 1 and Level 2, and speed up the energy-saving transformation of existing unreasonable compressor systems. Therefore, the future investment direction will change from weight to quality.
(2) Centrifugal air compressor
As the centrifugal compressor is an oil-free compressor with good safety and health performance, it can be used in food, pharmaceutical, mining, air separation and other industries with high requirements for operating environment. At present, centrifugal air compressors are mainly used in steel, petrochemical, shipbuilding, electric power and automobile fields, and their demand can account for more than 70% of the total demand of centrifugal air compressors. It should be noted that the steel, shipbuilding, electric power and automobile industries are currently in a downward trend. It is expected that the slowdown of downstream growth will slow down the market demand for centrifugal compressors.



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